Three very successful years with the San Francisco 49ers, in which he led them to 3 straight NFC Championships and one Super Bowl birth,Jim Harbaughshowed how much of a hot commodity he is. Right now at 7-6 following a 24-13 loss to the Oakland Raiders, it looks like the team’s championship window has closed for good, giving Harbaugh a chance to have a fresh start somewhere else.
Harbaugh has stayed in the state of California for such a long time, especially in the Bay Area. Harbaugh finished his playing career with the San Diego Chargers, was the Raiders’ quarterback coach from 2002-2004, coached the University of San Diego from 2004-2006, coached Stanford from 2007-2010, and has coached the San Francisco 49ers since 2011.
If Harbaugh is going anywhere, it will most likely be in the Bay Area with the Raiders. NFL Media insider Ian Rapoport tweeted in November that Harbaugh’s wife wants to remain in the Bay Area.
Jim Harbaugh is no longer on the#Dolphinsradar in unlikely event Philbin is fired. His wife wants to stay in the Bay Area. Hello#Raiders
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet)November 16, 2014
Age has hurt the 49ers. Tight endVernon Davis, defensive endRay McDonald, outside linebackerAhmad Brooks, Left tackleJoe Staleyand strong safetyAntoine Betheaare 30-years old. Running backFrank Goreis 31 years old. Another defensive end,Justin Smith, is 36 years old. The Niners also have 3 wide receivers that are at least 33-years old;Anquan Boldin,Kassim OsgoodandBrandon Lloyd. Inside linebackerPatrick Williswill be 30-years old by the time he returns from injury next year.
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Playing 8 playoff games in the past 3 years is having a toll on the 49ers now. Inside linebacker Navorro Bowman has missed all of the season with a torn ACL & MCL, right tackleAnthony Davishas been out of the lineup for quite some time, inside linebacker Patrick Willis is out for the rest of the year after breaking his toe against the Rams during week 6, centerDaniel Kilgoreis out for the season since he injured his lower left leg against the Denver Broncos, running backKendall Hunterhas missed the whole year after tearing his ACL, and cornerbackTramaine Brockhas been in and out of the lineup with toe and hamstring injuries.
Not only is San Francisco old and injury-prone right now, but it is not in a good situation salary cap-wise. Some key 49ers that will be free agents in 2015 is wide receiverMichael Crabtree, running back Frank Gore and guardsMike IupatiandAlex Boone. The 49ers are very limited salary cap-wise, according to Kevin Lynch ofsfgate.com, who stated that the salary cap is expected to be around$149 millionnext year. Spotrac.com estimated that the Niners are nowover the 2015 salary capat $151 million.
The team can’t sign them all back, but it can pick and choose by clearing cap space with potential casualties such as Brooks ($9.6 millioncap hit in 2015), Justin Smith ($6.4 million), wide receiver Stevie Johnson ($6 million),Jonathan Martin($1 million) and safetyCraig Dahl($1.9 million). If the 49ers cut all five guys, the amount they would shave off the cap is $24.9 million, but $5.4 million in dead money would still count against the cap. The 49ers can’t resign all three guys, Iupati, Crabtree and Gore, but most likely they can only keep one of the three.
The Raiders are the perfect fit for Jim Harbaugh. QuarterbackColin Kaepernickhas shown that without the read-option, he cannot read defenses and has accuracy issues, hence is why he’s thrown 16 touchdowns, while throwing 10 interceptions. Harbaugh could swallow some pride and have a chance to develop the best quarterback of the NFL draft inDerek Carr, who’s only getting better with more experience, and has 17 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The difference between Carr and Kaepernick is that Carr is a more polished pocket passer who has shown signs of being a top-tier starter in the NFL.
Not only is Carr such a promising prospect, but Oakland also has some good, young play-makers at wide receiver. The Raiders have a big deep threat inAndre Holmes, who in his career is averaging 15.4 yards per catch and has 4 touchdowns this year. Harbaugh would have a tall 6’4” receiver who would make a dangerous red zone threat. The Raiders not only have a big receiver, but a young 25 year-old speedster inDenarius Moore, who has 17 touchdowns in his career. Oakland also has a 26 year-old inRod Streater, who had 888 yards and 4 touchdown catches last year, but was on injured reserve for much of this season.James Jonesis a veteran receiver who has 372 catches and 41 touchdown catches in his career, with 62 receptions this year.
Dec 7, 2014; Oakland, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh calls out to referees after a play against the Oakland Raiders during the second quarter at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Along with the weapons at wide receiver, Carr has a very solid receiving tight end inMychal Rivera. The second-year player out of Tennessee has 8 career touchdowns, with 4 coming this season so far, and has 48 receptions this year so far.
Oakland has Derek Carr on offense, and has another rookie of the year candidate on defense in outside linebackerKhalil Mack. Another solid pass rusher, linebackerSio Moore, had 4.5 sacks last year in his rookie season, and 3 sacks this year. With the right coaching, he can only improve if they utilize his strengths and know his limitations.
The Raiders also have a young cornerback inD.J. Haydenwho was drafted in the 1st-round in 2013. He only has 2 interceptions, but is up and down injury-wise, and can get the right coaching from Harbaugh to achieve his potential.
At running back, second-year rookieLatavius Murraylooks like a bright young player. This year, he’s averaging 6.5 yards a carry in scarce action, and had a 90-yard touchdown run against the Chiefs during week 12. Also, Oakland has Marcel Reese, who can play running back and full back. If Harbaugh wants a strong balance of run and pass, he can utilize some heavy sets that he ran with the 49ers, which does frequently include the use of the fullback.
Two former 49ers, cornerbacksTarell BrownandCarlos Rogers, are already in Oakland right now. Both were signed as free agents in the past offseason, and spent the past 3 years with Harbaugh in San Francisco. Whether it’s a coincidence or not, both players signing with Oakland may signify some inside knowledge of Harbaugh going to Oakland. Tarell Brown and Carlos Rogers are two examples of veteran players who can help all the other Raider players learn Harbaugh’s schemes.
If Harbaugh is certain to be the Raiders next coach as sources say, there still is a possibility that he could bring more former 49ers with him. The Raiders need some help on the O-line, and a good move would be to possibly sign Mike Iupati, if the 49ers can’t find a way with their cap situation to resign him or apply the franchise tag.
At running back, if Oakland decides to not resignDarren McFaddenand cut Maurice Jones Drew, they could try to pursue Frank Gore if the 49ers feel like moving on and givingCarlos Hydethe starting job. The Raiders, then, realizing that Gore won’t be getting the bulk of the carries, can sign him at the right price. Having Gore and the emerging Latavius Murray would be a perfect 1-2 punch for an Oakland running game that is dead last in rushing yards.
Gore has already expressed hesitancy on returning to the 49ers, according to Tyler Emerick of49ers.com.
“It’s my last year under contract, and I want to go out and at least get a shot tohold the trophy.”
Frank Gore probably does not want to go to Oakland if he would want to sign with a contender, but staying with his former coach and retiring in the Bay Area likeJerry Ricecould be possible.
Michael Crabtree could become a possibility, if Harbaugh becomes the Raiders head coach, and he feels that Carr may need another play-maker at wide receiver. Bringing in Crabtree could force defenses to keep a big eye out for him, which can allow Andre Holmes and speedy play-makers like Rod Streater in the slot to get opportunities in one-one-one matchups if defenses choose to double cover Crabtree.
If Oakland could try to acquire Crabtree, it could choose not to resign wide receiver Rod Streater, who is young, but had an injury-riddled season.
Salary cap-wise, Oakland is in a fantastic situation to make that happen to bring any combination of those 49er players. As stated earlier, the projected salary cap in 2015 is $149 million, but right now, the Raiders only have$85 millioncounted against the 2015 salary cap. Oakland will probably have to decide between resigning Andre Holmes, Denarius Moore and Rod Streater, and will awaitRod Woodson‘s future plans after the season.
Tarell Brown is a free agent, but if Harbaugh goes to Oakland, the Raiders might resign Brown.
The Raiders are much younger than the 49ers and have a more flexible salary cap situation than the 49ers. With no contract extension so far and a reluctance of the 49ers front office to bring him back, the odds of Harbaugh staying in the Bay Area to join the Raiders is very high.
With two franchise stars, one on each side of the ball, along with a promising young core, it looks even more likely by the minute that Harbaugh will become the head coach of the Oakland Raiders, where he started his NFL coaching career.
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